← Phoenix Inn PTM Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at Phoenix Inn PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
6-4-3
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.2%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1325
· range 1150–1493
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1119
Q1 1270
Q3 1433
1493
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Neos | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
